RHB’s report highlights that the growth for August marks the strongest expansion in retail sales since February 2024, when 8.4% y-o-y growth was recorded. Including August’s figure, Singapore’s retail sales have risen 2.2% year-to-date. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/Edgeprop Singapore)
Singapore’s retail market is expected to see higher sales growth in 4Q2025, despite the modest performance recorded year-to-date, according to a research report by RHB. The firm has maintained its full-year retail sales growth projection of 2.5%, citing a “cautiously optimistic” outlook for the rest of the year.
The unchanged forecast comes as Singapore recorded higher retail sales growth in August. Data published by the Department of Statistics shows that retail sales grew 5.2% y-o-y in August, accelerating from the 4.6% increase recorded the month before.
RHB’s report highlights that the growth for August marks the strongest expansion in retail sales since February 2024, when 8.4% y-o-y growth was recorded. Including August’s figure, Singapore’s retail sales have risen 2.2% year-to-date.
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RHB expects retail activity to remain steady in the last quarter, supported by rising tourism inflows coinciding with upcoming festive periods such as Deepavali and Christmas, as well as the year-end school holidays.
In addition, government measures, such as the distribution of SG60 and GST vouchers, are expected to provide a short-term uplift to overall domestic demand. The GST voucher scheme will see eligible Singaporeans receiving up to $850 in cash from August, on top of the $600 in SG60 vouchers received in July.
RHB also attributes its sanguine outlook to healthy online sales data, which it says is indicative of robust consumer confidence. Online sales made up 13.1% of the $4.3 billion total retail sales value for August, on par with the proportion for July. Computer and telecommunications equipment continued to make up the bulk of online sales, at 54.5%, followed by furniture and household equipment (32.6%), and supermarkets or hypermarkets (11.3%).
Notwithstanding the resilient performance of the retail market, RHB notes that the positive retail outlook is dependent on economic conditions remaining stable. “A caveat to our positive view lies in a potential slowdown in Singapore’s economy alongside a softening labour market in 2H2025,” the report says. Potential risks include weaker external demand arising from broader tariff impacts and lower labour demand, particularly for manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors.