SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - The HDB launched two executive condominium (EC) sites for sale. One of the sites, located at Fernvale Lane, just off Yio Chu Kang Road, was launched for public tender on Dec 30, under the 2H2019 Confirmed List of the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme.
The other EC site, located at Tampines Street 62, was released for sale under the Reserve List of the 2H2019 GLS programme.
Christine Sun, OrangeTee & Tie's head of research and consultancy, reckons demand for ECs will remain strong since there has been a dearth of new launches, with just one launched in 2019 (Piermont Grand) and three this coming year, namely Ola at Anchorvale Crescent, Parc Canberra at Canberra Link and an upcoming EC at Tampines Avenue 10.
Generally, EC sites have seen keen bidding interest from developers, with seven to nine bids received, even after the property cooling measures of July 2018. Tricia Song, Colliers International head of research for Singapore, attributes strong developer interest to the limited EC land supply and the buyer profile of ECs, which is predominantly owner occupiers. Such buyers are less affected by the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) which has had a greater impact on investors.
Since September 2019, the monthly household income ceiling for EC buyers was raised to $16,000, from $14,000 before. This could enlarge the pool of buyers and spur demand for ECs, notes OrangeTee & Tie's Sun.
The average selling prices of ECs have escalated about 30% over the past three years, notes Colliers’ Song. In the northeast region, average launch prices of ECs have increased from $840 psf for Hundred Palms Residences in July 2017; to $975 psf for Rivercove Residences in April 2018; and $1,100 psf for the most recent, Piermont Grand in July 2019.
“While Hundred Palms and Rivercove Residences sold out pretty quickly, Piermont Grand has sold about 456 or 56% of its total 820 units as at 22 December,” says Song. “The slower sales possibly indicate the resistance to the higher price points and narrowing price gap between ECs and like-for-like private condominiums.” As such, she expects prices of new ECs “to remain stable” in 2020.
The Fernvale Lane EC site has a land area of 184,391 sq ft and maximum gross floor area (GFA) of about 516,300 sq ft. It could potentially be built into a 470- to 500-unit EC project.
The Fernvale Lane site is about 800m from the Fernvale LRT station. Colliers' Song expects the site to receive about seven to nine bids, and top bid price to be in the $260 million or $500 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr) range, with projected selling price of $950 to $1,000 psf.
Meanwhile, Nicholas Mak, head of research & consultancy, ERA Realty Network, reckons the tender for the Fernvale Lane EC site to draw top bids in the $280 million to $295 million range, or $540 to $570 psf ppr.
Table: Comparable condominiums near Fernvale Lane GLS site
* Note: Median price is median transacted unit price $per square foot from Jan - Nov 2019
Source: URA, ERA Research & Consultancy
The Fernvale Lane EC site is likely to be popular among developers as there is limited supply of launched and unsold ECs – estimated at less than 380 units, says Mak. The EC site is also closer to amenities such as Seletar Mall and Greenwich V shopping mall.
Meanwhile, the Tampines Street 62 EC site has a land area of 256,182 sq ft and maximum GFA of 640,377 sq ft. It could potentially yield 585 to 620 units, according to ERA’s Mak. The site is about 1km from the nearest MRT station, namely the Pasir Ris station.
Nearby is a 699-unit EC at Tampines Avenue 10 that could be launched by mid-2020. The Tampines Avenue 10 EC site was awarded in January 2019 for $578 psf ppr to a joint venture between Hoi Hup Realty and Sunway Developments.
“There is ample new private stock in the Tampines/Pasir Ris precinct,” points out Song. Nearby is the 861-unit The Tapestry, a private condo, where 702 units have been sold since its launch in March 2018, at an average price of $1,338 psf. Meanwhile, Treasure at Tampines, the single largest private condo, has sold 872 of a total of 2,203 units since its launch in March 2019 at an average price of $1,323 psf.
With three EC projects expected to be launched in 1H2020, OrangeTee & Tie’s Sun expects developers to observe the take-up of these projects before deciding if they want to trigger the Tampines EC site on the Reserve List.
Comparable condominiums near Tampines Street 62 GLS site
* note: Median price is median unit price psf from Jan - Nov 2019
Source: URA, ERA Research & Consultancy
“Given that Tampines Street 62 is still under construction and there are empty plots of land adjacent to the subject site which could potentially add on to the supply of residential land; demand from developers might be muted,” adds Mak. “Hence, this Reserve List site is not expected to be triggered for tender in the coming months.”
If the Reserve List site at Tampines Street 62 is offered for sale in the current market, it would attract a slightly lower level of interest from developers due to its relatively less accessible location, notes ERA’s Mak. He estimates the top bid for the site to vary between $336 million and $360 million, which translate to $525 to $562 psf ppr.
For price trends, recent transactions, other project info, check out these projects' research page: Piermont Grand, Hundred Palms Residences, Rivercove Residences, The Topiary, Lush Acres, High Park Residences, Parc Botannia, Belysa, The Tampines Trilliant, Coco Palms, The Palette
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