Planning for 10 million

October 7, 2014 2:07 PM SGT

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SINGAPORE: Liu Thai-Ker, widely regarded as a pioneer in Singapore’s urban planning, had reiterated his vision for a long-term population of 10 million.

Now, he spells out how this can be achieved.

Dressed in a blue shirt with its sleeves rolled up to the elbows, Liu Thai-Ker peers at the pages of a booklet through penetrating eyes beneath a magnificent set of bushy eyebrows.

The booklet features Liu’s recent works in cities around the world — from Singapore to China, and even in the suburbs of Russia.

In Shandong province alone, Liu drew the master plan for Qufu, Confucius’ hometown, and for the hometown of Zhuge Liang, the famous military strategist of the Three Kingdoms era.

In Weifang, another historic city in Shandong, Liu drew the master plan for and designed the buildings of the Weifang Cultural Centre.

As Weifang is widely regarded as the kite capital of the world, with the world’s largest international kite festival held there every April, the buildings were designed to resemble kites. “

At different locations, my style changes to suit the characteristics of the place,” says the 76-year-old during a recent interview with The Edge Singapore.

Equally celebrated in Singapore and China, Liu has been hailed as the city-state’s “father of urban planning”.

He earned that moniker after overseeing the completion of more than half a million public housing units during his 20-year tenure at HDB, from 1969, where he was planner and CEO.

He was URA’s CEO and chief planner from 1989 to 1992, and spearheaded the major revision of the 1991 Singapore Concept Plan and the key direction for heritage conservation.

Since 1992, Liu has been a senior director and partner of Singapore’s leading design firm RSP Architects Planners & Engineers which, incidentally, was acquired last year by Rowsley, Singaporean billionaire Peter Lim’s investment company, in a reverse takeover deal.

Liu is also the founding chairman of the Centre for Liveable Cities, a position he has held since 2008.

The eldest son of Singaporean artist Liu Kang, he is often asked why he did not follow in his illustrious father’s footsteps.

“His canvas is about 3 sq m. And mine, the largest now is 2,000 sq km — which is three times the size of Singapore,” he says.

No stranger to controversy, Liu believes Singapore should plan for a population of 10 million over the long term.

He has reiterated that at at least three conferences — a forum organised by the Singapore Institute of Planners in April last year; the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2014 on July 4, where he was a panelist on Asian urbanisation; and at a seminar on “Building a Nation: Tomorrow” on July 31.

Some people questioned Liu’s proposal as the government’s target of 6.5 million to 6.9 million people by 2030, outlined in the population white paper released in early 2013 had provoked public outcry.

“I did not raise this 10 million irresponsibly,” he emphasises. “I’ve thought it through and, hopefully, the government will think along those lines.”

Liu has done some calculations and reckons that there is more land available than supposed at first glance.

Under the 1991 Concept Plan, he planned for a total population of 5.5 million, leaving some spare land undeveloped, he says.

Sensing that there could be a land shortage in the future, URA has in recent Master Plans intensified development of land use, observes Liu.

The result is that less land has been utilised than originally planned for.

To him, this means there is more available land for future use.

Another 80 to 100 sq km of land has yet to be reclaimed from the sea, he notes.

According to the population white paper, land reclamation is projected to increase Singapore’s land area by 5,200 ha, with most of it taking place in Pulau Tekong off the eastern coast, Jurong Islands and Tuas in the west.

When reclamation works are completed, the land area in Singapore will be increased from the current 71,600ha to 76,600ha.

Old apartment blocks that are generally of lower density can be redeveloped into higher density housing, Liu says.

For example, over the years, HDB has embarked on selective en bloc redevelopment scheme in an effort to renew older public housing estates.

Even industrial areas can be redeveloped, especially those with ageing single-storey factories built years ago, he adds.

However, Liu intends to keep all the green spaces as far as possible.

The historical buildings which have been gazetted should also be preserved, he adds.

Liu was active in conservation projects while he was with URA.

He is also of the view that the Good Class Bungalow areas, which have been gazetted by URA, should likewise be kept.

“I would like to keep the GCB areas as we need to have a wide variety of housing types within the city to cater to different aspirations,” he reasons.

Nevertheless, to accommodate a future population of up to 10 million — almost double the current 5.4 million —more high-density housing will be needed, Liu says.

“If we plan now, we could try our best to spread this higher density in smaller pockets all over the island, so they can be integrated with the current housing developments,” he explains. “

That means we won’t have to pay a high price for it as we still get to keep the things we value.

My worry is, if we don’t do the distribution of the high density areas now, they will all be concentrated in big chunks of land [in the future].”

Based on the 1991 Concept Plan, Singapore was carved up into five regions — central, east, northeast, north and west.

Each has its respective regional centre, for example, Tampines in the east, Woodlands in the north, Jurong East in the west and Nee Soon in the northeast.

Each region currently has a population of approximately one million, equivalent to that of Penang, Liu says.

Increasing the city-state’s population to 10 million would mean doubling that of each region.

Two million is equivalent to the population size of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital city, he adds.

After spreading out the higher density areas equally across the five regions, and doubling their population size, there would still be some reserve land for future expansion, Liu reckons.

The regional centres, in turn, will be transformed into CBDs, with MRT lines planned accordingly.

“If each region is like a Kuala Lumpur, it has to be planned as an independent city.

We would then have a more effective MRT system as it will be built according to the increase in population, and not constantly add new lines in a kind of problem- solving manner.”

Between 2012 and 2013, Singapore’s population grew 1.6% to 5.4 million, while its resident population was up just 0.7% to 3.8 million, according to figures from the Department of Statistics.

Population density rose to 7,540 per sq km in 2013 from 7,529 per sq km a year before.

That could explain the complaints about packed trains and buses during peak hours, overcrowding in public spaces as well as growing competition for jobs and housing.

One ought to be realistic, says Liu.

At the DBS conference in July, he related an anecdote told to him 40 years ago by a former minister.

If New Zealand’s population density were to be applied to Singapore, the city-state would only be able to support 85,000 people.

“Is there a so-called critical limit for population size and density? That, to me, is not a relevant question,” Liu said then. “

The relevant question is: Can we stop population growth? How many years do you want Singapore to remain a country?”

The 1.6% growth rate over the 12 months from June 2012 to 2013 was the lowest in nine years.

Over the long-term, the growth rate could be lowered to 0.5% a year to achieve a population of 10 million, estimates Liu.

This rate is similar to those of Scandinavian countries such as Denmark, Norway and Sweden, he adds. “

These countries never stopped growing.

So, how can we assume that Singapore can stop growing?” he asks.

In planning the HDB towns in the past, Liu says he took inspiration from the alternating black and white squares on a chess board.

Assuming high-rise HDB residential blocks were placed on the black squares, then the low-rise neighbourhood centres, schools and parks will be placed on the white squares around them. “

Obviously, that is an oversimplification,” he says. “However, that strategy succeeded in achieving a sensation of lower density while, in reality, it was much higher,” he explains.

Does his vision of a 10-million population include Singaporeans having to live in Batam, Bintan or Iskandar Malaysia?

No, says Liu. “We must be self-reliant, and solve our problems within our own national boundaries.”

The other concern is whether having 10 million living in Singapore will turn it into a nation of micro or shoebox apartments.

“I’m assuming that the sizes of homes will not shrink,” says Liu. “What I want to do is maintain the current GFA [gross floor area] per person and maintain the quality of life.

That’s why it’s important to plan for the long term now, to ensure all these things are incorporated.”

While working on the planning for public housing estates and new towns at HDB, Liu and his team regarded it as “an urban laboratory”.

They continuously conducted research, got feedback and ploughed the findings into their plans.

The first HDB towns that Liu designed were Ang Mo Kio in the central area, Bedok in the east and Clementi in the west.

These were all built around the same time, he says.

Liu also designed the HDB estate of Marine Parade in the 1970s. It’s an example of a low-density HDB estate in Singapore.

Marine Parade is also connected to East Coast Park and the beach via an underpass.

Several underpasses link residents in the east coast area to the park on the opposite side of the East Coast Park expressway.

Liu also planned East Coast Park, which opened in the 1970s. It was built entirely on reclaimed land and fronts the beach.

It’s still considered the largest park in Singapore.

Apart from East Coast Park, Liu planned other parks as well, including Bishan Park and Xiao Guilin, also known as Bukit Batok Town Park.

“My heart is with planning parks,” he says. “But you cannot be lopsided.

If you say you love parks so much and don’t want to consider building high-density [housing] for people, the country won’t survive.

So, when you plan, you have to look in all directions.”

In recent years, Liu’s projects in Singapore include the design of the China Cultural Centre, which is to be completed by the end of the year; the INSEAD Asia Campus in one-north and French business school ESSEC Asia Pacific Campus in Nepal Hill, also in one-north.

Liu graduated from the School of Architecture at the University of New South Wales, Sydney and worked briefly at Clement Glancey & Associates, followed by three years as an architect with Loder and Dunphy Architects in Sydney.

He then went to Yale University on a scholarship, where he earned a Masters in City Planning.

He spent the next four years as an architect-planner at IM Pei & Partners in New York before returning to Singapore in 1969.

Liu has three sons and two daughters.

He lives in a quiet leafy private estate off Jalan Pemimpin in the Upper Thomson area.

Work requires him to travel frequently.

“People ask me what my profession is, and I tell them, ‘I am a hawker of cities.’ When I retire, I want to be a tour guide. I will be a highly qualified tour guide,” he says.

This article appeared in the City & Country section of Issue 642 (Sep 8) of The Edge Singapore.

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