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Private home prices up 1% in 2017 after three years of decline

By Angela Teo

/ EdgeProp |

January 2, 2018 1:01 PM SGT

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Updated, Jan 2, 2018, 2:52 p.m., to include performance of landed property prices in 4Q2017 and additional responses from consultants.

Based on flash estimates released by URA on Jan 2, the private residential property index rose by 1.0 point to 138.6 points in 4Q2017, from 137.6 points in 3Q2017. This works out to be a 0.7% q-o-q increase, following the 0.7% increase in 3Q2017.

Property prices for the whole of 2017 rose by 1%. This marks the first y-o-y increase in prices since 2013. Prices fell y-o-y by 3.1% in 2016, 3.7% in 2015, and 4.0% in 2014.

Lee Nai Jia, head of research at Edmund Tie & Company (ET&Co) attributes the full-year increase in private residential property prices to, among other factors, the easing of cooling measures, bullish bids for Government Land Sales (GLS) and collective sale sites, as well as the stronger economic outlook toward the end of the year.

Prices of non-landed private residential properties in the Core Central Region (CCR) saw the strongest growth, rising by 1.6% in 4Q2017, compared with a 0.1% increase in 3Q2017.

“Based on caveats lodged with URA, some projects that contributed to the price growth in 4Q2018 were Martin Modern, Gramercy Park and Sophia Hills, which saw median prices rise q-o-q by 8.3%, 4.0% and 1.8%, respectively,” comments Tricia Song, head of research for Singapore at Colliers International.

Meanwhile, prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and the Outside Central Region (OCR) rose q-o-q by to 0.2% and 0.6% in 4Q2017, respectively, after registering a 0.5% and 0.8% increase in 3Q2017.

Landed property prices rose by 0.6% in 4Q2017, compared with a 1.2% increase in 3Q2017.

For the whole of 2017, prices of non-landed private residential properties in the CCR, RCR and OCR rose by 0.8%, 1.6% and 1.2% respectively, following a decline of 1.2%, 2.8% and 3.4% in 2016.

Colliers’ Song notes that overall private residential property prices for 2017 are 10.3% below the 2013 peak. “We expect overall private home prices to rise 5% in 2018, barring unforeseen events,” she says.

According to URA, flash estimates were calculated based on transaction prices given in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment as well as developer sales data up till mid-December.

Meanwhile, based on flash estimates released by HDB on Jan 2, the resale price index for public housing decreased from 132.8 points in 3Q2017 to 132.6 points in 4Q2017. This translates into a 0.2% decrease in prices, compared with a 0.7% decline in 3Q2017.

According to Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Realty, resale prices of HDB flats saw a 1.5% y-o-y decline in 2017. Lim attributes this to, among other factors, a reported announcement by minister for national development Lawrence Wong in March that not all ageing HDB flats will undergo the Selective En-Bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS).

“Flats excluded from the scheme will have to be returned to the state, which makes older resale HDB flats less appealing to buyers,” notes Lim.

HDB will offer approximately 3,600 new flats in the first Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise this year, which is slated for launch in February. The flats will be located in Tampines, Woodlands, Choa Chu Kang and Geylang.

URA and HDB will release the full and updated set of real estate statistics on Jan 26.

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