Upcoming projects include large-scale OCR sites such as Rivelle Tampines executive condo (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
The moderation in private residential price growth in recent years has not been driven by a tightening of land supply, but by its expansion.
Since 2022, a sustained increase in Government Land Sales (GLS) supply has strengthened the pipeline of future private housing, improving supply visibility and helping to anchor market expectations. This calibrated approach has enabled the private housing market to transition from a post-pandemic surge into a more balanced and sustainable growth phase.
From 2022 to 2025, the total number of private residential units placed on the GLS confirmed and reserve lists across both halves of each year increased meaningfully. This sustained expansion in land supply has helped establish a strong and visible pipeline of future private housing.
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Over the same period, private residential price growth moderated progressively. Annual price growth eased from 8.6% in 2022 — reflecting strong post-pandemic momentum — to 6.8% in 2023, before slowing further to 3.9% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. According to flash estimates, private residential prices continued to moderate in 4Q2025, rising 0.7% q-o-q, softer than the 0.9% increase recorded in 3Q2025.
On a full-year basis, price growth in 2025 was the slowest since 2020, underscoring the extent to which price momentum has normalised in recent years.
Importantly, this moderation has occurred alongside a sustained increase in GLS supply, rather than in an environment of tightening land availability. The data suggests that the expanded GLS pipeline has contributed to market stability by improving supply visibility and helping to anchor price expectations.
The calibrated increase in land supply has supported a more balanced growth environment. While some sites may be carried over across successive GLS programmes, the sustained availability of land has nonetheless helped maintain equilibrium between demand and supply.
The private residential market remains resilient but is now operating within a healthier and more sustainable growth phase. The moderation in price growth, occurring in tandem with an expansion in GLS supply, indicates that the market is not entering a phase of structural supply tightening.
With land availability maintained at elevated levels, concerns over supply-driven price pressures appear less pronounced. Future price movements are therefore more likely to remain measured, rather than being driven by scarcity-induced acceleration.
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Under the 1H2026 GLS programme, the Confirmed List alone provides a substantial pipeline of 4,575 private residential units — more than 50% above the 10-year average Confirmed List supply per GLS programme. This reflects a deliberate and proactive approach by the government to ensure adequate land availability for private housing, reinforcing its commitment to long-term market stability rather than allowing supply constraints to fuel excessive price pressures.
Although the Confirmed List quantum in 1H2026 is slightly lower than the 4,725 units released in 2H2025, it remains elevated by historical standards. This marginal moderation should be viewed as part of a calibrated supply strategy rather than a signal of tightening.
The sustained level of land supply across consecutive GLS programmes continues to provide developers with clear forward visibility and underscores the authorities’ commitment to maintaining a well-balanced and orderly housing market.
The scale of these land injections reflects an ongoing effort to support market balance, even as demand conditions remain underpinned by stable employment, continued household formation, and gradually improving financing sentiment. Rather than constraining supply, the GLS framework has been used effectively to smooth market cycles and align land availability with underlying demand over the medium term.
In this context, perceptions of a tightening market should be approached with caution. While certain quarters may see fewer project launches as developers pace supply more strategically, these short-term variations largely reflect launch-timing decisions rather than a shortage of underlying land supply.
Developers today are more disciplined in managing project releases, responding to buyer absorption rates and prevailing market conditions. This has resulted in a steadier and more orderly flow of new launches.
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This is evident in 2025, when an estimated 11,430 private residential units were launched — the highest annual launch volume since 2013, when 15,885 units entered the market.
Many of these projects originated from GLS sites awarded in earlier years, particularly in 2023 and 2024, reflecting the government’s continued efforts to progressively scale up the GLS programme to ensure adequate housing supply. The translation of these land awards into actual project launches has expanded buyer choice in the primary market, playing an important role in moderating price growth.
At the same time, a strong GLS pipeline has provided developers with sufficient opportunities to replenish their land banks, supporting a healthy development cycle.
Launch activity is expected to remain robust in 2026, with an estimated pipeline of about 13,560 units. The distribution of upcoming launches will continue to be anchored by the Outside Central Region (OCR), which accounts for around 64.9% of total expected supply. This reflects the mass-market segment’s broad buyer base and sustained demand from HDB upgraders.
The Rest of Central Region (RCR) is expected to contribute about 22.2% of launch volume, while the Core Central Region (CCR) will likely account for the remaining 12.9%. This mix suggests that the new-sale market in 2026 will continue to be driven primarily by suburban demand, although well-located RCR projects are likely to attract strong interest due to their mid-tier pricing advantage.
Upcoming projects span a diverse range of developments, from large-scale OCR sites such as Rivelle Tampines, Tengah Garden Avenue and the Woodlands Drive 17 executive condominium, to prominent RCR and CCR launches including Media Circle, the former Thomson View Condominium site and Dunearn Road. Many of these are located near MRT stations or within evolving planning precincts, which should support buyer interest.
Overall, the outlook for the 2026 new-sales market remains stable. While sales volumes may ease from the exceptional levels recorded in 2025, demand is expected to remain resilient, supported by Singapore’s strong employment base, sustained household formation and the appeal of new housing stock.
The sizeable OCR pipeline will continue to anchor market activity, supported by upgrader demand. The RCR should see healthy performance from well-priced launches, while the CCR is likely to remain niche but supported by affluent local buyers.
As such, private residential property prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, albeit at a gentler pace than in 2025. With a healthier pipeline of new launches, the broader market environment is shifting towards a more balanced position.
Buyer sentiment is expected to remain stable, supported by easing interest rates and a wider choice of units. Taking these factors into account, private residential property prices are projected to grow by around 2.5% to 4.0% in 2026.
Mohan Sandrasegeran is the head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI)