There has been a slight uptick in million-dollar resale flat transactions, majority of which are concentrated in mature estates such as Toa Payoh, Queenstown, Bukit Merah and Ang Mo Kio. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
HDB’s flash estimates for 1Q2026, released on Apr 1, showed a decline in the HDB resale price index (RPI), decreasing marginally by 0.1% q-o-q, following a plateau in the previous quarter. This marks the first drop in the HDB RPI in almost seven years, noted HDB. Previously, the last price fall occurred in 2Q2019, when prices fell 0.2% q-o-q.
“This marginal dip in the HDB RPI suggests that the market may be entering a more balanced phase after several years of sustained growth,” says Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Singapore.
With HDB releasing approximately 4,692 build-to-order (BTO) flats, alongside 4,320 sale of balance flats (SBF) in the first BTO exercise of the year, this has also helped ease prospective buyers’ urgency to enter the resale market, says Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research & data analytics at SRI.
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Buyers who previously turned to the resale market due to time constraints have more viable alternatives such as the SBF or shorter-waiting-time (SWT) flats.
Based on information from data.gov.sg, 53,816 resale flats will reach their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) between 2026 to 2028, 56.1% more than the 37,474 units over the same three-year period of 2023 to 2025.
Therefore, public housing flat prices will drop as more supply enters the resale market and buyers have many housing options to choose from, says Christine Sun, chief researcher & strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.
The HDB flash estimates for 1Q2026 also recorded transaction volumes for resale flats increasing by 17.6% q-o-q to 6,179. However, on a yearly basis, this is 4.5% lower than the same period last year.
Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics, Huttons Asia, observes that while the q-o-q volume has improved, this is the lowest first quarter volume since 2021. He attributes this to the SBF exercise in February that pulled buyers away from the resale market.
“The rise in flats reaching their MOP this year has also enlarged the resale pool, offering buyers broader choices across locations and flat types. This has helped sustain transaction volumes even as price growth stays moderate,” notes ERA’s Lim.
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In 1Q2026, there was a slight uptick in million-dollar flat transactions, with 412 resale flats sold for a million dollars or more, according to Huttons Asia’s Lee. This is 17.4% higher than the preceding quarter, which saw 351 resale flats sold at that price point.
Lee also observed the average prices of such flats were $1.15 million, lower than last quarter’s $1.6 million.
ERA posits that “million-dollar transactions made up only 6.9% of total resale volume in the quarter, highlighting that such transactions are still the exception rather than the rule”.
About 90% of these transactions are concentrated in mature estates such as Toa Payoh, Queenstown, Bukit Merah and Ang Mo Kio.
Looking ahead, ERA’s Lim expects this trend to persist, especially with a substantial number of MOP completions in mature precincts such as Toa Payoh and Queenstown.
For the upcoming quarters, the HDB resale market is expected to stabilise in terms of volume and prices.
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The introduction of HDB developments in areas such as Pearl’s Hill and Toa Payoh West point to HDB’s efforts to broaden access to highly sought after locations and support a more balanced market outcome, says SRI’s Sandrasegeran.
He adds that measures such as increasing BTO supply, reintroducing SBF exercises and expanding availability of SWT flats has enhanced buyer choice and reduced pressures on the resale market by providing viable alternatives across different housing segments.
ERA anticipates the resale market to remain resilient, with transaction volumes hovering around 26,000 to 27,000 units and an annual price growth between 2% to 5%.
Realion Group’s Sun estimates larger macroeconomic uncertainty alongside rising supply will exert downward pressure on prices. She maintains that HDB resale prices are to rise modestly by 2% to 4% for the upcoming year.