Toa Payoh topped the list with 66 million-dollar HDB resale transactions in 2Q2026 (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
HDB resale prices have now slipped for two straight quarters, with the Resale Price Index down 0.3% to 202.8 in 2Q2026, after a 0.1% decline in 1Q2026 -- a sign that the multi-year resale boom may finally be losing steam.
Christine Sun, chief researcher & strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, attributes the slightly faster pace of price decline in 2Q2026 to intense competition arising from the Build-to-Order (BTO) market, prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties, and a weaker hiring outlook.
In 1H2026, overall prices dipped by 0.4% — a strong reversal from the 2.5% and 4.2% price gains in 1H2025 and 1H2024, respectively.
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Overall prices also dipped at a faster clip as average prices across many HDB towns declined.
"Although the resale segment is softening due to broader economic and hiring uncertainties, this pullback in prices can also be seen positively," says Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore. "Further price moderation, whether through slower growth or a series of gentle corrections, could pave the way for a more sustainable HDB market in the longer run."
HDB data showed that volume rose marginally by 1.8% q-o-q to 6,396 units in 2Q2026, from 6,285 units in 1Q2026. It marks the lowest second-quarter transaction volume since 3,426 resale flats were sold in 2Q2020 during the Covid pandemic, notes Realion's Sun.
"The uptick in resale transaction volume reflects price-sensitive buyers returning to the market alongside displaced applicants from the February 2026 sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise," says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics, Huttons Asia.
"This minor price softening was largely cushioned by a steady influx of buyers returning to the resale market, which helped support overall transaction volumes and stabilise the market," he adds.
Resale transactions rose q-o-q across all flat types, with two-room flats at 3.6%, followed by five-room flats at 2.9%, three-room flats at 2.6%, executive flats at 1.9%, and four-room flats at 0.5%. The total number of one-room flats increased from three units to five units.
Based on caveats lodged, the average price of a four-room HDB resale flat rose 0.5% q-o-q to $679,570 in 2Q2026. Lee attributes the marginal price appreciation primarily to an injection of flats that have met their minimum occupation period (MOP) entering the resale market, which is another factor contributing to downward pressure on prices.
"Taking a broader perspective, HDB resale prices have staged a significant long-term rally, surging 55.0% since bottoming out in 2Q2019, and advancing 53.8% since the introduction of the circuit breaker measures in Apr 2020," notes Huttons’ Lee.
Newer flats (up to 14 years old) comprised a significant proportion of the quarter's transactions, supported by a high volume of those reaching their MOP. "These newer flats were favoured by younger buyers," Lee adds.
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 24 Jul 2026
Concurrently, older flats of at least 50 years saw their transaction share expand by 1.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2025. Given that these ageing properties face tighter financing and loan-to-value limitations, this demand is likely driven by cash-rich buyers prioritising location or size over remaining lease tenure, notes Lee.
Total resale transaction volume fell 9.9% on a y-o-y basis, with volumes falling across most flat types, except for one-room flats. Two-room and three-room flat transactions dipped the most, by 22.3% and 12.3% respectively, possibly impacted by the surge in two-room flexi flat supply, which may have drawn some buyers away.
The y-o-y decline in volumes across most flat types indicates that "the market is inherently weaker" compared to a year ago, notes Sun.
"On the other hand, buyers may now find themselves with more bargaining power after several years of a sellers' market," says ERA's Lim. "That said, sellers need not slash their asking prices drastically to secure a sale, provided that their flats are valued realistically without excessive Cash Over Valuation (COV)."
Out of 26 HDB towns, 15 registered price contractions ranging between 0.1% and 7.9% in 2Q2026. Serangoon led the correction with the largest quarterly decline of 7.9%, followed closely by Marine Parade (-7.6%) and Geylang (-6.9%), according to Huttons.
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 24 Jul 2026
Notably, average resale prices in Marine Parade retracted by more than 10% in 1H2026. Lee attributes the downward pressure in prices to the estate's ageing lease profiles and a distinct shift in buyer demand toward newer completed flats in nearby Bedok South Horizon.
Meanwhile, Jurong West, Punggol, Sengkang, Tampines, and Woodlands emerged as the top five most popular HDB towns. Based on caveats lodged, these five estates collectively accounted for 35.7% of the quarter's total resale transactions, according to Huttons.
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 24 Jul 2026
The million-dollar HDB resale segment continued to gain traction, fuelled by a growing pipeline of flats completing their five-year MOP, says Huttons.
Notably, newly eligible developments such as Bedok South Horizon and Hougang RiverCourt registered their inaugural wave of million-dollar transactions. This influx of premium secondary supply pushed the proportion of million-dollar transactions in Bedok and Hougang to 8.8% and 5.0% of their respective town totals in 2Q2026, up sharply from 2.6% and 1.7% in 1Q2026.
Overall, an estimated 491 HDB resale flats were transacted for at least $1 million in 2Q2026, representing a 19.5% increase q-o-q, notes Huttons.
Source: data.gov.sg (as of 23 July 2026), ERA Research and Market Intelligence
Compared to a year ago, transactions of million-dollar HDB flats rose 18.3%, adds ERA's Lim. Million-dollar HDB deals also accounted for 7.7% of all resale transactions in 2Q2026, up from 6.5% the previous quarter.
Despite the volume surge, the average price of these premium flats softened slightly by 0.3% q-o-q to $1,147,216 (down from $1,150,651 in 1Q2026), marking the second consecutive quarter of moderating average prices, notes Huttons.
"This price easing is likely due to mounting buyer resistance at the top end of the market, alongside a larger share of million-dollar deals occurring in non-mature estates, which typically command lower price premiums than mature-estate counterparts," says Lee.
"While there has been a rise in million-dollar flat transactions, the impact has not been uniform across the different towns," ERA's Lim points out. "In popular towns such as Toa Payoh and Queenstown, the influx of newer MOP flats has also expanded the pool of homes likely to reach the million-dollar mark, creating a more bifurcated resale landscape."
This was reflected in 2Q2026 data, when mature towns with the largest MOP supply also recorded some of the highest numbers of million-dollar HDB transactions. Toa Payoh topped the list with 66 such deals, followed closely by Queenstown with 65. Bedok and Tampines also ranked among the top ten, with 27 transactions each during the quarter.
"Buyers' preference for newer MOP units, combined with their availability in mature towns this year, has helped support premium prices," says Lim.
Source: data.gov.sg (as of 23 July 2026), ERA Research and Market Intelligence
While the number of qualifying towns moderated during the quarter, SRI head of research and data analytics, Mohan Sandrasegeran, found that million-dollar median resale prices continue to be established within selected locations despite the broader moderation in the HDB Resale Price Index.
The three towns that recorded million-dollar median resale prices in 2Q2026 were Central Area, Queenstown, and Toa Payoh, all within the four-room flat category. "These mature estates have consistently recorded some of the highest HDB resale prices in Singapore, supported by their central locations, excellent transport connectivity, comprehensive amenities, and limited supply of resale flats," says Sandrasegeran.
These figures highlight that million-dollar HDB resale flats "remain largely concentrated within mature estates, where strong accessibility, established amenities, proximity to key employment centres, and a limited supply of larger HDB flats continue to support premium valuations", adds Sandrasegeran.
HDB rental demand rose in 2Q2026 due to the seasonal increase as tenants returned from their spring break or renewed or signed leases before some international schools start their academic year in 3Q2026.
The Central Area remained the priciest, with median rents of about $3,300 (three-room), $4,600 (four-room) and $5,100 (five-room), says ERA's Lim. Bukit Batok had the highest two-room median rents at $2,450, while Jurong West and Tampines led executive flats at $4,000.
According to HDB Public Housing Data, the number of approved applications to rent out HDB flats rose by 4.9%, up from 9,535 units in 1Q2026 to 10,002 units in 2Q2026. Y-o-y volumes were lower than the 10,066 leases in 2Q2025, indicating broadly stable demand.
"The HDB rental market may continue to face pressure, as the public housing stock is poised to rise over the next three years," says Sun. For the whole of 2026, HDB rental prices are forecast to grow by 1% to 3%. Leasing volume may reach 36,000 to 39,000 units in 2026.
Sun expects price growth in the HDB resale market to remain subdued in the second half of the year, hampered by macroeconomic uncertainties and a dimmer job outlook. Layoffs have been rising in some sectors affected by AI and tech automation, while fewer companies are in expansionary mode, she points out.
Flight to affordability will continue to drive buyers to the Build-to-Order (BTO) market. HDB will be launching nearly 8,000 more flats across seven projects in Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun in October.
"In particular, the projects in Bedok are expected to attract strong interest, benefiting from their location within the transforming Bayshore precinct, excellent MRT connectivity, and long-term redevelopment potential," says SRI's Sandrasegeran. "At the same time, new projects in mature estates such as Toa Payoh and Geylang will provide more opportunities for first-time buyers to secure subsidised housing in locations that have traditionally recorded strong resale demand and price premiums."
A total of around 24,000 new flats — comprising BTO and SBF — will have been launched this year. "The high volume of new flat supply will impact demand for resale flats," cautions Realion's Sun. "The increased competition will place some downward pressure on prices, where price corrections have already been observed in many estates."
Sandrasegeran expects the continued expansion of BTO supply, together with multiple SBF exercises and the availability of Shorter Waiting Time flats, "to gradually reduce the supply-demand imbalance that characterised the resale market over recent years".
"By providing buyers with a wider range of housing options, these initiatives are likely to distribute demand more evenly across BTO, SBF, and resale segments, reducing the urgency that previously contributed to stronger resale price growth," he adds.
At the same time, the resale market is set to benefit from a meaningful increase in supply as a growing number of flats reach their MOP. At least 14 towns are expected to see flats attaining MOP in 2026, significantly expanding the availability of relatively newer resale flats across different locations, notes SRI.
Against this backdrop, SRI expects HDB resale prices to register a more measured increase of 0.5% to 2.0% for the full year 2026, while resale transaction volumes are projected to remain healthy at around 25,000 to 26,000 flats.
While a massive influx of newly MOP-ed supply will keep overall prices in check, these newer units will continue to attract robust buyer interest, observes Huttons' Lee. "In particular, waterfront-facing units at Waterfront I @ Northshore and Waterfront II @ Northshore — which offer unblocked views towards Johor — are prime candidates to join the million-dollar resale tier."
Consequently, Huttons Data Analytics projects that million-dollar transactions will reach between 1,700 and 1,900 units in 2026. For the full year, overall HDB resale transactions are estimated to land between 22,000 and 26,000 units, with price growth projected to range between -2% and 2%.
ERA expects HDB resale transactions to reach around 26,000 units by year-end. "This would reflect sustained housing demand despite more cautious buyer sentiment," says Lim.
Meanwhile, Realion's Sun is projecting overall HDB resale prices to trend between -1% and 2% for the whole of 2026.