With about 55,000 BTO flats planned between 2025 and 2027, first-time buyers are increasingly presented with viable alternatives to the resale market (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
After several years of strong price momentum, the HDB resale market is finally showing signs of a structural reset. This moderation should not be mistaken for a loss of demand or buyer confidence. Rather, it reflects the cumulative impact of a deliberate and sustained expansion of public housing supply — one that is beginning to realign buyer behaviour, price expectations and overall market balance.
According to HDB’s latest flash estimates, resale prices rose by about 2.9% in 2025, a sharp moderation from the 9.7% increase in 2024. This shift marks an important inflection point. Instead of relying on short-term cooling measures, the market is responding to tangible increases in housing supply across multiple channels.
This is arguably a healthier and more durable way to stabilise prices as it addresses the root cause of price pressures — rather than merely dampening demand.
Read also: HDB resale price growth slows but million-dollar flats' prices gain 2.3% in 4Q2025
Chart: SRI Research, data.gov.sg downloaded as at Jan 2, 2026
A key pillar of this recalibration has been the sustained ramp-up of Build-To-Order (BTO) supply. With about 55,000 BTO flats planned between 2025 and 2027, first-time buyers are increasingly presented with viable alternatives to the resale market.
This shift matters. In recent years, limited BTO availability and long waiting times had pushed many households into the resale segment earlier than intended, intensifying competition and driving prices higher. As primary supply expands, resale demand is no longer being artificially compressed into a single channel.
The sale of balance flats (SBF) segment has also played a meaningful role. In 2025, more than 10,252 SBF units were released, compared with just 1,588 units in 2024 — a more than sixfold increase.
Unlike BTO flats, SBF units typically come with much shorter waiting times, making them especially attractive to buyers seeking near-term housing solutions. The reintroduction of two SBF exercises within a single year has broadened buyer choice and redistributed demand more evenly across housing pathways.
This reflects a more flexible and responsive supply framework. Rather than funnelling demand into the resale market by default, near-ready supply is now being injected where pressure is most acute.
Chart: SRI Research, data.gov.sg downloaded as at Jan 2, 2026
Recent announcements further strengthen the view that the current moderation in the resale market is being shaped by deliberate supply planning rather than passive adjustment.
Read also: HDB resale prices plateaued in 4Q2025 as transactions sink to five-year low
About 19,600 BTO flats are set to be launched in 2026 across three sales exercises in February, June and October, spanning towns such as Ang Mo Kio, Bukit Merah, Sembawang, Toa Payoh, Tampines, Woodlands and Yishun. This represents a substantial pipeline that directly addresses first-time buyer demand across both mature and non-mature estates.
More importantly, National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat has indicated that the HDB has been asked to go beyond the original 55,000-flat target between 2025 and 2027 if demand remains strong. This signals a shift from fixed supply targets towards a more responsive and demand calibrated approach. Rather than allowing shortages to build before reacting, supply is now being adjusted proactively to prevent pressure from accumulating in the resale market.
The composition of upcoming launches also matters. Of the 19,600 flats planned for 2026, more than 4,000 units will come with shorter waiting times of fewer than three years. A similar quantum of around 4,000 shorter waiting-time flats is expected again in 2027.
The latest supply commitments reinforce the broader narrative that public housing is entering a phase where volume, timing and flexibility are being aligned more closely with demand conditions. This strengthens the likelihood that the resale market will continue to stabilise in 2026, supported by choice and availability rather than scarcity and urgency.
Chart: SRI Research, data.gov.sg downloaded as at Jan 2, 2026
Beyond new launches, the resale market is approaching another turning point as more flats reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP).
In 2025, only about 6,973 flats were expected to reach MOP, limiting the flow of newer resale stock even as transaction volumes moderated. This dynamic shifts meaningfully from 2026 onwards.
Read also: HDB resale market: Entering calmer waters?
An estimated 13,484 flats are expected to reach MOP in 2026 — almost double the 2025 level — rising further to about 18,939 units in 2027. This wave of newer flats represents one of the most important stabilising forces for the resale market over the medium term.
These flats typically offer longer remaining leases, more efficient layouts and modern design standards. Rather than triggering price weakness, they expand effective supply, encourage price differentiation and reduce aggressive bidding behaviour. Importantly, this does not imply a collapse in prices. Instead, it introduces greater choice, encourages more price differentiation and reduces the likelihood of aggressive bidding for limited stock.
Chart: SRI Research, data.gov.sg downloaded as at Jan 2, 2026
The geographical distribution of upcoming MOP supply reinforces this outlook. Towns such as Punggol and Queenstown are expected to lead in 2026, injecting significant volumes into areas with historically strong demand.
In Punggol, the concentration of Northshore flats with waterfront attributes and improving connectivity should continue to draw interest. In Queenstown, the release of newer Dawson flats may ease supply tightness, even as prices remain supported by centrality and estate maturity.
Elsewhere, Tampines will contribute 2,133 MOP flats, reflecting its role as a major regional hub. Toa Payoh and Bedok will add 1,594 and 1,440 units respectively, boosting supply in mature estates where resale stock has traditionally been limited.
Looking ahead, resale prices in 2026 are likely to continue rising, but at a more measured pace of around 2.5% to 4.5%. This reflects a market adjusting to higher supply while remaining underpinned by genuine housing demand, stable employment conditions and household formation.
The combined impact of higher BTO launches, expanded SBF exercises, and a rising MOP pipeline points to a resale market that is normalising through supply-led adjustments rather than abrupt policy intervention.
The transition is constructive. Buyers benefit from greater choice, sellers operate in a more competitive environment and price movements become more sustainable.
Over time, this lays the groundwork for a public housing market that remains accessible, stable and resilient.
Mohan Sandrasegeran is the head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI)