HDB resale prices plateaued in 4Q2025 as transactions sink to five-year low

/ EdgeProp Singapore

January 2, 2026 9:51 PM SGT

Light

Dark

More towns recorded price declines than gains in 4Q2025, according to HDB flash estimates (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

HDB flash estimates for 4Q2025 released on Jan 2 showed that resale flat prices were flat in the three months from October to December, following a 0.4% increase in 3Q2025. This marked the first time HDB resale prices were unchanged since 1Q2020, noted Housing & Development Board.

Price growth over the last three quarters of 2025 (2Q to 4Q) was below 1%. Based on the flash estimate, full-year growth in resale flat prices slowed sharply to 2.9% in 2025, down from 9.7% in 2024. This was also the weakest annual price growth since 2019.

Source: HDB, SRI Research

According to caveat data from data.gov.sg, price declines were observed across most flat types, says Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC). Average prices of smaller flats fell more sharply, with one-room flats down 0.4%, two-room flats declining 1.6%, three-room flats easing 0.8% and four-room flats slipping 0.9%.

In contrast, prices of larger flats rose in the quarter. Five-room flats recorded a 1.3% q-o-q increase, while executive flats saw stronger gains of 2.7%, Sun adds.

More towns recorded price declines than gains in the quarter, she highlights: 16 towns saw price drops, eight registered gains and two were unchanged. The steepest declines were in the Central Area (-11.1% q-o-q), Ang Mo Kio (-7.6%), Toa Payoh (-5.7%), Woodlands (-4.8%), Geylang (-4.4%) and Bukit Batok (-3.8%).

Resale volumes plunge 29% q-o-q

Resale transaction volume fell sharply in the final quarter of 2025, plunging 29% q-o-q to an estimated 5,129 units. This was also 18.8% lower year on year. “This is the steepest quarterly decline in transaction volume since the circuit breaker in 2Q2020,” says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. In 2Q2020, resale volume stood at 3,426 units.

As at Dec 30, some 26,042 resale flats were transacted in 2025, about 10% lower than the 28,986 units recorded in 2024, notes Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex.

The slowdown in transactions was partly due to the October 2025 Build-to-Order (BTO) launch, which attracted more than 30,000 applicants and resulted in a notably quiet month for the resale market, says Huttons’ Lee. Some buyers may also have been drawn to private residential launches in October and November, where entry prices were close to those of nearby resale flats, he adds.

In response to softer demand, some resale sellers reduced asking prices by as much as $100,000 to attract buyers. “Some owners even opted to sell below the last transacted price,” Lee notes.

Beyond BTO launches, the supply of Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) surged to 10,252 units in 2025, up sharply from just 1,588 units in 2024 — a 6.5-fold increase year on year, says Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI.

The two SBF exercises were held in February and July following the Budget 2025 announcement. Notably, the February exercise was the largest to date, offering 5,590 flats, adds Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore.

“At the same time, the number of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) fell to 6,973 units in 2025,” says Lim. “This was the lowest supply of MOP flats in 11 years, since 2014, when only 5,301 units entered the resale market.”

Million-dollar flat transactions

In 4Q2025, 351 resale flats were sold for $1 million or more, 26.9% lower than the 480 units transacted in the previous quarter. Despite the lower volume, the average price of such flats rose 2.3% q-o-q to $1,165,256, according to Huttons, from $1,138,829 in 3Q2025.

More than 90% of million-dollar flats in 4Q2025 were located in mature estates, notes Lee. Toa Payoh recorded the highest number at 62 units, followed by Bukit Merah with 46 and Queenstown with 44 transactions.

The 351 deals in 4Q2025 brought the total number of million-dollar resale flats transacted in 2025 to 1,594 units as at Jan 2, 2026 — 54% higher than the 1,035 units recorded for the whole of 2024, estimates PropNex.

Read also: HDB resale market: Entering calmer waters?

Of these, four-room flats accounted for 664 units (41.7%), followed by five-room flats with 557 units (34.9%) and executive flats with 368 units (23%). Three multi-generation flats and two three-room terraced flats also crossed the $1 million mark, notes PropNex.

About 139 units (8.7%) were located in non-mature towns, with the remaining 1,455 units in mature estates, adds PropNex’s Wong. Toa Payoh led with 302 transactions (18.9%), followed by Bukit Merah with 216 units (13.6%) and Queenstown with 173 units (10.9%).

Outlook for 2026

HDB plans to raise its overall BTO supply by 10%, or 5,000 units, to 55,000 flats from 2025 to 2027. However, the estimated annual supply in 2026 and 2027 will average 17,639 units, about 10.6% lower than the 19,723 flats launched in 2025, says Huttons’ Lee.

The February 2026 BTO exercise is expected to offer about 4,600 flats across six projects — the smallest launch since February 2022, when 4,126 flats were offered. Lee expects strong demand for projects in Bukit Merah, Tampines and Toa Payoh.

“If the income ceiling for BTO flats is raised in 2026, more households will qualify,” he says. “With reduced BTO supply in 2026 and 2027, demand may spill over into the resale market.”

Meanwhile, the number of flats reaching their five-year MOP is projected to rise to 13,480 units in 2026, up 68.5% from about 8,000 units in 2025, providing buyers with more options in the resale market.

ERA expects the HDB resale price index to rise by 2% to 5% in 2026, supported by the higher price base established in 2025, says Lim. He adds that a larger pool of 11,181 three-room and larger flats reaching MOP should help sustain both price growth and transaction activity.

ERA forecasts resale transaction volumes of 26,000 to 27,000 units in 2026, driven by a bigger pipeline of MOP flats and steady price growth. Huttons projects transactions in the range of 24,000 to 27,000 units, with prices rising by 1% to 4%.

PropNex similarly expects resale volumes of 26,000 to 27,000 units, with prices increasing by 3% to 4% in 2026. SRI’s Sandrasegeran anticipates a steady price increase of about 2.5% to 4.5% in the year ahead.

Property updates, 24/7.