HDB resale market: Entering calmer waters?

Atiqah Mokhtar

/ EdgeProp Singapore

December 26, 2025 2:00 PM SGT

propertyeditor@edgeprop.sg

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The HDB resale market is expected to further stabilise in 2026 (Picture: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

HDB resale prices continued to climb in 2025, propelling the upward trend that began five years ago. As of 3Q2025, resale flat prices have risen for 22 consecutive quarters from 2Q2020, representing the longest streak on record, based on HDB data.

However, the pace of growth has been markedly slower compared to the surge of recent years. At the start of the year, the HDB Resale Price Index rose 1.6% q-o-q in 1Q2025, moderating from the 2.6% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Quarterly growth narrowed to 0.9% in 2Q2025 before easing further, rising just 0.4% in 3Q2025. “After years of rapid growth in prices, the HDB resale market finally entered a phase of stabilisation in 2025,” says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia.

For the first three quarters of the year, resale flat prices have risen by a cumulative 2.9%. OrangeTee, a member of Realion Group, anticipates prices to grow by 3% to 4.5% for the full year, well below the 9.7% increase logged in 2024. “The resale market experienced a noticeable slowdown in early 2025, with the decline becoming even more pronounced in the latter half of the year,” the firm states in its 2026 HDB market outlook report.

Meanwhile, Huttons’ full-year price growth estimate is around 3%. “Judging from the soft demand in 4Q2025, there is a possibility that resale prices might inch down in the last quarter of 2025,” adds Lee.

HDB resale volume and price growth

Slower resale activity

The decelerating growth in HDB resale prices this year has coincided with lower transaction volume. Resale transactions in the first three quarters of the year totalled 20,913 deals, fewer than the 22,562 transactions over the same period last year.

For the full year, Huttons’ Lee predicts resale volume to clock in at about 25,500 flats, which is over 12% below the 28,986 units transacted in 2024. This would also be the lowest volume of resale flat deals since pandemic-stricken 2020, when 24,748 flats changed hands.

Market commentators attribute the weaker resale volume to more Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) units made available this year, which diverted demand from the resale market. A total of 29,975 flats, comprising 19,723 BTO flats and 10,252 SBF flats, were launched for sale in 2025 across exercises in February, July and October. This is 41% higher than the 21,225 BTO and SBF flats launched in 2024.

According to Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Singapore, the supply of SBF flats released this year is one of the largest on record. “The sharp increase in SBF availability — nearly 6.5 times last year’s level — provided buyers with shorter wait times and more options in mature estates, reducing demand in the resale market,” he says.

Huttons’ Lee adds that recent changes to HDB policy, such as the expansion of singles’ eligibility to buy two-room flexi BTO flats to all estates, and an increased allocation of BTO flats for second-timer families, also drew buyers. Overall, the 2025 BTO and SBF exercises attracted nearly 100,000 applicants, up from 82,000 in 2024 and marking a three-year high, according to OrangeTee’s report.

Meanwhile, fewer existing HDB flats reached their minimum occupation period (MOP) this year. Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and analytics at SRI, notes that excluding rental flats, only 6,973 units achieved MOP in 2025, down from 11,952 last year. “With fewer newly eligible units entering the resale market, buyers had a more limited selection of newer flats with longer remaining leases, which also contributed to the dip in overall resale volumes,” he adds.

More flats to reach MOP in 2026

Despite a drop in resale volume and slower price growth, million-dollar flats continued to rise in 2025 (see story on top HDB resale deals in 2025). Sandrasegeran believes the lower supply of flats that attained MOP this year helped fuel this trend, as buyers prefer newer flats. “This scarcity created stronger competition for newer resale units, helping to support prices even as overall resale activity moderated.”

MOP flat supply is expected to pick up in the next two years, which may ease pressure. In 2026, about 13,400 flats are expected to obtain MOP islandwide, almost double this year’s figure, says Sandrasegeran. He estimates another nearly 19,000 flats to obtain MOP in 2027. “The strong MOP pipeline is likely to act as a key supply stabiliser for the HDB resale market,” he says.

For Huttons’ Lee, the larger pool of MOP flats will expand buyers’ options in the resale market, potentially boosting transaction volume in 2026. HDB towns that will see a significant number of MOP flats next year include Punggol, Queenstown and Tampines.

In terms of new flat supply, HDB is targeting to launch about 55,000 flats between 2025 and 2027 — 10% higher than its earlier commitment of 50,000 flats — to meet housing demand. The first sales exercise in February next year will launch about 4,600 BTO flats, along with about 3,000 SBF units.

Policy changes

Policy changes may also be on the cards for 2026, with the government currently reviewing the income ceilings for BTO flats, along with the eligibility age for singles. National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat, who announced the review in August, said that changes would be made “at an appropriate time”.

OrangeTee observes that a review of the income ceiling, which currently stands at $14,000 for couples and families and $7,000 for singles, is timely, given that previous revisions have occurred every four years, with the last revision taking place in 2019. “If the income ceilings were to be adjusted, we expect them to be raised to $16,000 for couples and families, and $8,000 for singles,” it adds.

This would increase the pool of buyers for BTO flats, potentially pulling demand away from the resale market. Similarly, lowering the eligibility age for singles would allow more buyers to purchase two-room flexi BTO flats, which could adversely affect demand for resale two-room and three-room flats.

Overall, market observers agree that the underlying demand for public housing remains healthy. However, given the various supply and demand factors, the net impact on the HDB resale market may be mixed. Most analysts predict that resale volume in 2026 will remain roughly on par with this year’s or slightly higher, accompanied by modest price growth.

Huttons’ Lee estimates that resale volume next year could range from 24,000 to 27,000, compared with his 2025 estimate of 25,500, while prices may grow between 1% and 4%. SRI’s Sandrasegeran expects resale volume to recover from around 24,000 to 25,000 this year to 26,000 to 27,000 next year, with prices rising between 2.5% and 4.5%.

ERA’s Lim anticipates a similar volume recovery, rising from around 24,000 in 2025 to about 26,000 to 27,000 next year. He expects resale prices to increase by between 2% and 5%. “Demand remains resilient, price growth is moderating into a sustainable band, and new supply channels are expanding, signalling a healthier, more balanced HDB landscape as Singapore moves into 2026.”

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