Pandemic recovery to support swift real estate market rebound over next two years: ULI

By Timothy Tay

/ EdgeProp Singapore |

November 26, 2021 4:10 PM SGT

The semi-annual report by ULI examine the three-year growth prospects of Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and China.

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SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - The Urban Land Institute (ULI) forecasts swift economic recovery for the real estate markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Japan over the next three years.

Read also: Singapore has the best prospects for investment in Asia-Pacific

“The Asia Pacific real estate industry is well primed for a resurgence in 2022 and we believe it will gather further momentum in 2023. This is demonstrated by strong economic prospects supported by a likely resumption of cross-border business activities amid a more widespread re-opening of borders,” says David Faulkner, president of ULI Asia Pacific.

In its latest semi-annual Real Estate Economic Forecast report for the Asia Pacific region, the non-profit research institute says that the office occupancy rate in Singapore is likely to grow in 2022 and 2023, compared to Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Tokyo which are expected to fall slightly.

Office rents in Singapore could increase between 4.6% and 5% over the next two years. The office market in Singapore also leads the region with office rental returns expected to jump 9.65% in 2022 before leading with a more moderate 6.75% in 2023.

Comparatively, Hong Kong and Tokyo are expected to record office rental returns of 5.4% and 6.28% respectively in 2023, after only slight gains next year.

The logistics sector is still expected to suffer from a structural undersupply of high-quality assets. This comes amid high demand on the back of the rapid growth of the e-commerce sector. However, capitalisation rates remain robust this year with Hong Kong at 3.46%, Singapore at 6.15%, Shanghai at 5%, and Tokyo at 3.5%.

ULI also expects the retail sector to face another huge contraction this year followed possibly by a gradual recovery over the next two years as the pandemic is contained and travel restrictions are loosened. In Singapore, retail rents could increase by 1.5% in 2023.

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