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New private homes, flats reaching MOP to decline; prices to moderate: OrangeTee & Tie

By Nicholas Lam

/ EdgeProp Singapore |

January 17, 2024 1:00 PM SGT

HDB flats reaching the end of their five-year minimum occupation period (MOP) are projected to drop from 15,549 units at the end of 2023 to 11,952 this year. (Credit: Samuel Isaac Chua)

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The number of private residential properties expected to obtain their temporary occupancy permit (TOP), excluding executive condos (ECs), is set to drop 48.2% from 19,050 in 2023 to 9,875 in 2024, says Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist, OrangeTee & Tie. Sun spoke at the Building & Construction Authority-Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore Construction and Property Prospects Seminar on Jan 15.

Private home transactions have been trending downwards since 2021, after multiple rounds of cooling measures drove some investors from the market. The drop in supply of newly TOP private homes this year will further expedite the downward trend, predicts Sun.

(Source: OrangeTee & Tie)

However, private residential resale prices are still expected to grow 3% to 5% in 2024, buoyed by the continued rise in prices of private new homes in the market.

Sun anticipates that 23 new private residential projects will be launched in 2024, with an aggregate new supply of 8,800 units. About 50% of the units will be located in the suburbs or Outside Central Region (OCR), 30% in the city fringe or Rest of Central Region (RCR), and 20% in the prime or Core Central Region.

Private residential projects scheduled for launch in the OCR this year could include the redevelopment of the former Chuan Park en bloc site and government land sale (GLS) sites sold last year at Lentor Central, the EC project at Tampines Street 62, and the new project at Clementi Avenue 1. The expected selling price for these OCR projects is in the range of $2,100 to 2,400 psf.

Sites in the RCR that are likely to be launched this year include those GLS sites sold in 2023, including Jalan Tembusu Parcel B, Pine Grove Parcel B, Lorong 1 Toa Payoh, Marina Gardens Lane and the former Meyer Park en bloc site. New project launch prices in the RCR are expected to increase to $2,300 to $3,000 psf.

Overall, the price of new private residential properties is expected to grow 2% to 4% in 2024, up from 1% to 3% in 2023.

(Source: OrangeTee & Tie)

Private residential rents are also expected to increase by 2% to 5% in 2024, down from 12% to 15% in 2023, according to OrangeTee & Tie. Sun attributes it to the drop in newly completed private homes.

HDB resale prices are also expected to moderate. Sun is projecting a 3% to 5% price growth for 2024, down from the 4% to 5.5% projected price growth in 2023. HDB flats reaching the end of their five-year minimum occupation period (MOP) are projected to drop from 15,549 units at the end of 2023 to 11,952 this year and down to 6,974 in 2025.

Resale transaction volume is forecast to hit 24,000 to 26,000, down from 26,000 to 27,000 last year. HDB resale transactions are also expected to decrease as more buyers are diverted to the new Build-To-Order (BTO) projects by HDB.

(Source: OrangeTee & Tie)

Over the next decade, new growth areas include the Eastern region, with the government's plans to gentrify the Paya Lebar Airbase, the Simei Road-Jalan Tiga Ratus neighbourhood, Long Island and Bayshore areas. According to Sun, these new areas will see 200,000 new residences come onstream over the next 10 years.

Across the island, as many as 300,000 to 400,000 new homes – private and public – are anticipated to enter the market over the next decade. It is equivalent to a 30% to 40% increase in the existing housing supply, reckons Sun.

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