Lessons learnt from last year’s most unprofitable condos
Last year, two condos in Sentosa chalked losses exceeding $3 million (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
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Condos do not live by location alone. Profitability – or otherwise – involves a matrix: location, leases and nearby amenities. Homebuyers and sellers will do well to heed the matrix.
Last year, the average resale price of condos islandwide increased by 4.2% y-o-y to $1,778 psf (see Chart 1). Notably, this growth rate was lower than the 5% y-o-y increase recorded in 2024. This trend aligns with URA’s latest flash estimates, which show that the private residential price index rose by 3.4% y-o-y last year, weaker than the 3.9% y-o-y increase in 2024.
Despite last year’s overall price growth for resale condos islandwide, several unprofitable transactions were recorded across a number of developments.
Here is the deep dive into the profitability matrix so that homebuyers and sellers can glean lessons and avoid making costly decisions.
Lesson 1: Prime location does not guarantee profit
Our analysis of unprofitable transactions concluded in 2025, indicates that seven condos recorded more than 10 unlucrative transactions each (see Table 1). Most of the seven condos are from premier residential districts, namely Districts 1 and 9, which underscores the fact that a prime location does not equate to guaranteed profits. Additionally, all seven are in the Central Region.
In fact, Marina One Residences in District 1 had the dubious distinction of chalking up the highest number of unprofitable transactions last year, with 30 such deals. Of the 30 loss-making transactions, one incurred a loss amounting to around $1.155 million. The eye-watering loss could be attributed to a lower-than-average sale price of $1,894 psf last year when the average price for Marina One Residences was $2,034 psf. Additionally, the average price of the condo has declined by 19.9% from 2018 to 2025 (see Chart 2).
Likewise, OUE Twin Peaks in prime District 9 recorded more unprofitable transactions than profitable ones last year. Of the 19 unlucrative transactions, one involved a million-dollar loss. Losses for the 462-unit condo ranged from approximately $105,000 to $1.002 million. Its sole profitable transaction yielded a gain of around $64,500.
The lone million-dollar loss could be attributed to the higher-than-average price of $2,919 psf paid by the seller. In 2016, the average price of OUE Twin Peaks was only $2,647 psf (see Chart 3). Moreover, from 2016 to 2025, the average price of the condo declined by 15.3% to $2,242 psf.
Lesson 2: New may not always be better
All seven condos with more than 10 unprofitable transactions last year are under 20 years old and have a remaining lease of at least 75 years. However, their relative youth and long remaining leases do not exempt sellers from incurring losses (see Table 2).
Among them, Sophia Hills is the youngest, having obtained its temporary occupation permit (TOP) in 2018. It also has the longest remaining lease, at 86 years. However, Sophia Hills still recorded 11 unlucrative transactions last year, with losses ranging from around $11,000 to $245,000. The 493-unit condo also saw 17 profitable transactions, with gains ranging from approximately $19,000 to $296,888.
Last year’s largest loss at Sophia Hills involved a one-bedroom unit on the first storey. The 560-sq ft unit was sold in October 2025 for $1.135 million ($2,028 psf), resulting in a loss of $245,000. The seller had purchased the unit in February 2018 for $1.38 million ($2,465 psf).
Lesson 3: Nearby schools and malls are critical
Among the seven condos with the highest number of losses last year, Marina One Residences and Reflections at Keppel Bay stand out as the only developments with more than 20 unprofitable transactions.
Located along Marina Way, Marina One Residences is within walking distance of Marina Bay, Downtown and Shenton Way MRT stations, giving residents easy access to the North–South, Downtown, Circle and Thomson–East Coast lines (see Map 1). Other nearby amenities include Marina Bay Link Mall and the Marina Coastal Expressway.
However, a locational drawback of the condo is its lack of nearby schools. There are no schools within a 1 km radius, and only Cantonment Primary School falls within a 2 km radius.
Source: EdgeProp LandLens
Reflections at Keppel Bay is a 1,129-unit condo located along Keppel Bay View in District 4. Nearby amenities include Telok Blangah MRT Station, West Coast Highway and Marina at Keppel Club (see Map 2). A locational drawback is the lack of a nearby mall, as the nearest—VivoCity—is more than 1 km away.
There are also no schools within a 1 km radius. Even when expanded to a 2-km radius, only three schools are nearby, namely Blangah Rise Primary School, Radin Mas Primary School and CHIJ St. Teresa’s Convent.
Source: EdgeProp LandLens
Both condos are located within walking distance of at least one MRT station, indicating that residents have easy connectivity to all parts of the island. However, neither condo has any schools within a 1 km radius. In addition, there are no major malls within walking distance of either development. The lack of amenities—aside from MRT stations—could have dampened their appeal to buyers, especially those with school-going children.
In fact, Reflections at Keppel Bay recorded 29 unprofitable transactions. Of which, three resulted in million-dollar losses (see Table 3).
The highest loss of $1.38 million at Reflections at Keppel Bay involved a three-bedroom unit on the first storey. The seller purchased the 1,733-sq ft unit in August 2013 for $4.18 million ($2,412 psf) and sold it in July 2025 for $2.8 million ($1,616 psf).
The sale price was significantly lower than the average price of $1,740 psf achieved by the condo last year (see Chart 4), which may have contributed to the million-dollar loss. The average price of Reflections at Keppel Bay also declined by 14.6% from 2013 to 2025.
Lesson 4: Continued weak demand for Sentosa condos?
Based on last year’s resale transactions, there are 40 condos with no profitable transactions and at least one unprofitable transaction. Among these, three recorded losses exceeding $3 million. Of the trio, two are in Sentosa and one is in prime District 10 (see Table 4).
There are no primary schools or MRT stations within a 2 km radius of Sentosa. Additionally, amenities in Sentosa are limited to Quayside Isle, Sentosa Cove Village, One15 Marina Club, Sentosa Golf Club and W Singapore Sentosa Cove Hotel. The nearest MRT station is HarbourFront, and the nearest major mall is VivoCity, but both are located on the main island.
The lack of nearby schools, major malls and MRT stations could have adversely affected demand and prices for condos in Sentosa.
The unit that incurred the highest loss of $3.675 million at Marina Collection is located on the first storey. The seller purchased the unit from the developer in January 2008 for $8.625 million ($2,636 psf) and sold it in July 2025 for $4.95 million ($1,513 psf).
The unit is a four-bedroom-plus-studio of 3,272 sq ft. Its spacious size and multiple bedrooms would make it ideal for a family. However, the lack of schools and limited amenities in Sentosa could have dampened its appeal, especially for that demographic.
Last year’s average resale price for Marina Collection ($1,510 psf) was lower than that of its peers in Sentosa ($1,763 psf), driven by Marina Collection’s 14.6% y-o-y price decline compared with a 2.5% y-o-y fall for 99-year leasehold condos in Sentosa (see Chart 5). The sharper price decline for Marina Collection could have contributed to the million-dollar loss.
What can buyers and sellers do?
There is no denying the variables – including luck - that contribute to the profit or loss that each seller made. For example, some buyers are willing to pay top dollar for a unit for personal reasons, such as proximity to family members. Additionally, a buyer may be willing to pay more for a particular condo or neighbourhood due to familiarity.
Variables or luck aside, our analysis of last year’s unprofitable condos highlights several factors that could have contributed to their losses. Buyers and sellers would do well to heed these factors.
Many assume that buying a relatively new condo in a prime neighbourhood will guarantee million-dollar profits, but analysis has shown otherwise. All the condos with at least 10 unlucrative transactions last year are less than 20 years old, and most of them are in prime districts.
Analysis indicates that nearby schools and major malls enhance the appeal of condos, boosting both demand and prices. Reflections at Keppel Bay recorded the second-highest number of unprofitable transactions last year. Notably, there are no schools within a 1 km radius of the condo, and only three schools fall within a 2 km radius.
Additionally, two condos in Sentosa experienced losses exceeding $3 million. The limited amenities, combined with the lack of schools and MRT stations in Sentosa, could have contributed to these eye-watering losses.
While nearby MRT stations may improve connectivity, they cannot fully offset the lack of amenities—such as malls and hawker centres—that bring everyday convenience. Marina One Residences, for example, is within walking distance of three MRT stations, but the absence of major malls or schools nearby could have contributed to its numerous unprofitable transactions.
The need for homebuyers and sellers to do their homework before signing on the dotted line cannot be overemphasized.
Homebuyers should consider walking around the neighbourhood to take note of the surrounding amenities. A wide variety of amenities, combined with the presence of nearby schools and malls, can boost demand, price, and – ultimately – profit for the condo.
Homebuyers and sellers should also examine recent sale transactions of similar units in the same condo to ensure that they do not overpay or underprice their unit. All said, many of the million-dollar losses occurred because buyers paid higher-than-average prices or sellers sold at lower-than-average prices. An easy way to access recent sale transactions and the average price for a particular condo is through EdgeProp’s Research or Market Trends tools.
Check out the latest listings for Marina One Residences, Reflections At Keppel Bay, Marina Collection, Sophia Hills, Oue Twin Peaks properties
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